Ford Sales Increase
Research for Online Investors

by John Dalt

1/05/09

Your editor spent part of the day out of the office at lunch with an old friend, and our daughter.  We tended to business and had our orders entered this morning, just like our subscribers and went to work (play).

We had a nice meal but typical for many restaurants, our portions were too large for a guy that sits behind a desk rather than using a shovel.

Upon return to the office, I kicked on CNBC and FOX Business to see what was happening, checked email, the market and promptly fell asleep at my desk.  The large meal combined with a mysterious phone call at 4 a.m. this morning was all it took to slow my metabolism and make me want to emulate our dog.  Eat and sleep, that is the best.

The market was much as I left it this morning.  Ford reported a 33% December sales increase year-over-year.  General Motors and Chrysler were both down.  Ford (F) stock hit a 52-week high over $11 and closed just shy of the mark with a 6.6% gain for the day. Only three auto makers sold more cars in the U.S. in 2009 than in 2008; Subaru, Hyundai and Kia.  I don’t want to insult anyone, but the last two are no surprise.  People will always flock to the cheapest, even if they offer very little actual value.  I spent thirty months in the auto dealer business, and learned two things.  Payday car lots are a license to steal and absent the ability to recognize quality, customers will always go with price.  If you would like to read more, the New York Times covers the story in “December a Mixed Month for Auto Sales.”

Pending home sales fell off a cliff this morning, and caused concern in the market.  Google introduced their new “superphone.”  Formally known as ‘Nexus One’, the smartphone is web-enabled running Google’s Android 2.1 operating system.  The phone is available to ship from google's online store.  Reuters has the story, “Google unveils Nexus One superphone.”  You can read about and order it here.

Subscriber T.W. sent in a video of John Coleman, founder of the Weather Channel examining the hypothesis of Global Warming.  I thought you might enjoy hearing from a Weather Man with 55 years experience.

In the Mailbox on ‘Trade of the Year’:
Commodities are my favorite asset class for the next decade, as investors increasingly catch on to the secular move out of paper assets into hard ones. Don’t buy anything that can be manufactured with a printing press. Focus instead on assets that are in short supply, are enjoying an exponential growth in demand, and take five years to bring new supply online. The Malthusian argument on population growth also applies to commodities; hyperbolic demand inevitably overwhelms linear supply growth. Ultimately this is a demographic play that cashes in on rising standards of living in the biggest and highest growth emerging markets. You can start with the traditional base commodities of copper and iron ore. Add the energies of oil, coal, uranium. Crude has in fact become the new global de facto currency (along with gold), and probably $30 of the current $82 price reflects monetary demand, on top of $52 worth of actual demand from consumers. That will help it spike over $100 sometime in 2010. —reader M.T.

I absolutely agree.  $100 crude in 2010 is conservative.  Much is perception.  Once it shifts, we are back to spring 2008

John Dalt

Maobama and Pelosi are back in Washington, the mischief making continues...

"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who are not". - Thomas Jefferson

The information presented in this newsletter is based on generally available news releases, corporate filings, current events, interviews and the editor’s opinions.  It may contain errors and you should not make investment decisions based solely on what you believe you have read here.  Do your own research, it is your money.  If you lose it, it is your responsibility, not ours or your grandmothers!  The editor may or may not have a position in any securities discussed.  The editor may have held a position in a security earlier, or in the future.

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